How can Warren sleep at night?

For Warrant to invest into select companies, and sleep like a baby at night, there has to be a relatively high degree of certainty in the whole “system” working and working well.  Why is Warren so certain in the outcome of investing obscene amount of capital into companies, when we loose sleep investing even a small amount of capital in the same companies that Warren invests in?

After taking an elevator to a floor in a high-rise building, do we expect the floor will just drop from under our feet?  Wait, don’t answer yet.  We need more information to answer this with a high degree of certainty.  Where in the building’s geographic location?  What year was the building built?  What were the building codes at the time the building was built, and were the codes followed?  What were the primary building materials used?  What are the chances of having some catastrophic event, such as a severe earthquake, at the building’s location?  Who were the primary architects and engineers responsible for construction, and what is their combined track record?

Provided we’ve received satisfactory answers to our questions, and assume with a high degree of certainty that the floor in our building “system” will have a very low chance of dropping from under our feet. We will continue to visit our favorite top building floor lounge, and continue our afternoon naps there on a very comfortable couch.

Maybe Warren started asking, early in his carrier, similar questions about the “system”, questions covering topics of major “system” structures.  You should agree that, even without having any real engineering proficiency, and with only some elementary understanding of buildings, anyone can rationalize that if the steel and cement was used in a building’s construction passing numerous inspections of every professional involved, the building is deemed safe.  Same logic should be applied to a Market “system”.  With only elementary understanding of each specific “system” area of expertise, and examining known variables, we should be able to determine some degree of certainty required for making investment decisions.  A major advantage of maintaining an elementary high-level perspective of the “system” and not focusing on any one specific discipline, is maintaining a high degree of certainty in future outcome when discipline experts are bogged down with details.  We going to look at the whole forest and not at the trees while walking to the forest, and then find the right trees.  Examining economics, politics, geopolitics, psychology, history, math, religion and other “system” areas of expertise should help us formulate our own understanding of why the “system” works, and save money on sleeping pills.